What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 19 June 2020 relative to its closing value on 19 March 2020?

Started Mar 20, 2020 05:00PM UTC • Closed Jun 19, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The S&P 500 Index closed at 2,409.39 on 19 March 2020.

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The question closed "Up more than 15.0%" with a closing date of 19 June 2020.

Possible Answer	Correct?	Final Crowd Forecast
Down more than 15.0%		0%
Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive		0%
Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0%		0%
Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive		0%
Up more than 15.0%		100%

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters	344
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts	1122
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672

Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters	average

-0.652

-0.637

-0.63

-0.595

-0.573