Started Mar 20, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 19, 2020 06:59AM UTC

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 19 June 2020 relative to its closing value on 19 March 2020?

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The S&P 500 Index closed at 2,409.39 on 19 March 2020.

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The question closed "Up more than 15.0%" with a closing date of 19 June 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down more than 15.0% 0%
Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive 0%
Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0% 0%
Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive 0%
Up more than 15.0% 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 344
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1122
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.652
2.
-0.637
3.
-0.63
4.
-0.595
5.
-0.573

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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