Started Mar 20, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 19, 2020 06:59AM UTC

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 19 June 2020 relative to its closing value on 19 March 2020?

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The S&P 500 Index closed at 2,409.39 on 19 March 2020.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "Up more than 15.0%" with a closing date of 19 June 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down more than 15.0% 0%
Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive 0%
Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0% 0%
Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive 0%
Up more than 15.0% 100%

No. of
Forecasters

344

Forecast
Count

1122

Crowd Brier Score

0.3934


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.652
2.
-0.637
3.
-0.63
4.
-0.595
5.
-0.573

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username