Question 8 of 25 in Coronavirus Outbreak
Started Mar 24, 2020 11:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jun 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

What will the UK Office of National Statistics report the UK unemployment rate to be for the period March-May 2020?

Amidst the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are fears of a spike in unemployment in the UK (City A.M., Guardian, Spectator.co.uk). The outcome will be determined using data from the Office of National Statistics for the Unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted, for the period March-May 2020 (Office of National Statistics). For November 2019-January 2020, the rate was 3.9% (Office of National Statistics - March 2020 Bulletin). This question will suspend on 31 May 2020 and close when data are first released, typically in July (Office of National Statistics).

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Name Probability
Less than 4.0% 1%
Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive 0%
More than 5.0% but less than 6.0% 0%
Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive 10%
More than 7.0% 89%

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