When will Bernie Sanders cease to be a candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination for president?

Started Apr 03, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 08, 2020 04:00PM UTC

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the two remaining candidates in the race for the Democratic nomination (NPR, NY Times). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Sanders no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.

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The question closed "Before 1 May 2020" with a closing date of 8 April 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 May 2020 99%
Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020 1%
Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020 0%
Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020 0%
Not before 1 August 2020 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 120
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.919
2.
-0.778
3.
-0.551
4.
-0.545
5.
-0.539

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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