Started Apr 03, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2020 07:01AM UTC

FAVAR asks:

What will be the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for October 2020?

Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS Release, BLS Data). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2020 and resolved when the data for October are first released, scheduled for 6 November 2020 (BLS (Schedule)). Revisions to U3 data would be immaterial.

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The question closed "Between 6.0% and 10.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 6.0% 0%
Between 6.0% and 10.0%, inclusive 100%
More than 10.0% but less than 14.0% 0%
Between 14.0% and 18.0%, inclusive 0%
More than 18.0% but less than 22.0% 0%
22.0% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 498
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 1836
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.266
2.
-0.253
3.
-0.251
4.
-0.249
5.
-0.248

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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