Question 28 of 33 in Coronavirus Outbreak
Started Apr 03, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Nov 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

FAVAR asks:

What will be the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for October 2020?

Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS Release, BLS Data). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2020 and resolved when the data for October are first released, scheduled for 6 November 2020 (BLS (Schedule)). Revisions to U3 data would be immaterial.

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Name Probability
Less than 6.0% 0%
Between 6.0% and 10.0%, inclusive 26%
More than 10.0% but less than 14.0% 62%
Between 14.0% and 18.0%, inclusive 12%
More than 18.0% but less than 22.0% 0%
22.0% or more 0%

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