Started Apr 17, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 03, 2020 09:00PM UTC

Foxes Ask:

Before 1 January 2021, will the Russian constitution be amended to allow Vladimir Putin to remain president after his current term?

Under Russia's current constitution, President Vladimir Putin is required to step down in 2024 (Guardian). A national vote on constitutional changes that, among other things, would allow him to continue serving as president was scheduled for 22 April 2020, but the vote was postponed due to COVID-19 (NPR, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal). The processes for amending the Russian constitution are found in Chapter 9 (Constitution.ru, Moscow Times).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 July 2020.

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Final Crowd Forecast

100%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

280

Forecast
Count

549

Crowd Brier Score

0.0368


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.029
2.
-0.029
4.
-0.028

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