DueCharge asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China before 15 December 2020?

Started May 08, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 15, 2020 08:01AM UTC

A landslide victory by President Tsai Ing-wen in January 2020 and Taiwan's continued military build-up keep eyes focused on the region for potential conflict (Reuters, Taipei Times, Jane's, UNSI News). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 December 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 306
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 925
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001
2.
-0.001
3.
-0.001
4.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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