Started Mar 15, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 31, 2017 06:00PM UTC

Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?

This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 January 2016. In October of 2016, it restructured some of its debt (Bloomberg, WSJ) and in November2016, PVDSA missed a payment but was granted a 30 day grace period to meet its obligations (WSJ, Bloomberg). It made a late payment later that month, avoiding default (Forbes , Barron's). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


After years of recession and falling oil prices, Venezuela is at risk of defaulting (Bloomberg, Reuters). Examples of past defaults include Argentina in 2014 (BBC, The Economist) and Ivory Coast in 2011 (Bloomberg, African Capital Markets News). Clarification added 4/25/2016: Restructuring of debt will not count as a default. Recommended Questions How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forum’s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index? Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election? What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 30 September 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 471
Average for questions older than 6 months: 249
Number of Forecasts 2037
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.837
2.
-0.836
3.
-0.836
4.
-0.834
5.
-0.833

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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