Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?

Started Mar 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 05, 2016 05:00PM UTC

UPDATE 6/7/16: We have re-opened the question on Peru's election to allow forecasters to continue to discuss and engage with each other as the vote count continues. However, as with other election questions, we will only score forecasts made prior to the election: in this case forecasts made through the end of 4 June 16. Peru is scheduled to hold general elections on April 10. Term limits bar incumbent president Ollanta Humala from running for that post again, and polls have identified Keiko Fujimori as the front-runner (Voice of America, Reuters). If no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote in the first round, a runoff will be held in June, in which case the end date of the question will be extended. Recommended Questions Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? How many seats will United Russia win in September's Russian State Duma elections? Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 80.00%
No 20.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 269
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1484
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.981
2.
-0.914
3.
-0.85
4.
-0.825
5.
-0.786

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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