Before 28 July 2020, will Saudi Arabia announce the cancellation or suspension of the Hajj pilgrimage, scheduled for 28 July 2020 to 2 August 2020?

Started May 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 28, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Saudi authorities have suggested that Muslims should delay confirming plans to make the annual pilgrimage to Mecca amid the COVID-19 pandemic (GuardianMiddle East Eye, Al Jazeera). An announcement of restrictions without a cancellation or suspension would not count.

Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 28 July 2020.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 06/04/20 12:56pm
GJ Open does not consider the May announcement of the continuation of a curfew in Mecca as it applies to pilgrimages through 21 June, which was in place prior to the launch of this question, to be a de facto announcement by Saudi Arabia about the cancellation or suspension of the Hajj pilgrimage scheduled for 28 July to 2 August 2020.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, before 1 June 2020 0%
Yes, between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020 0%
Yes, between 1 July 2020 and 27 July 2020 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 264
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 948
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.514584
2.
-0.493799
3.
-0.475799
5.
-0.401049

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username