Started May 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC

joescusi asks:

Between 15 May 2020 and 30 November 2020, will any Group III U.S. air carrier file for bankruptcy?

The COVID-19 outbreak has greatly impacted the aviation industry (Barron's, CNBC, CNN). The 18 carriers that were designated in Group III as of 1 January 2020 are listed here: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Bankruptcies by holding companies that wholly own a Group III air carrier would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2020.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

339

Forecast
Count

1256

Crowd Brier Score

0.6234


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.832
3.
-0.812
5.
-0.785

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