The Mack Institute asks:

How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2020?

Started Jun 05, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2020 10:59PM UTC

Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 (Reuters). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 (Tesla). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here

This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1647. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
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The question closed "More than 400,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 250,000 0%
Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive 0%
More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000 0%
Between 350,000 and 400,000, inclusive 0%
More than 400,000 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 109
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 452
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

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Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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