The Mack Institute asks:

How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?

Started Jun 05, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 (Reuters). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 (Tesla). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.

This question is the longer-term companion of question #1646. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.

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The question closed "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 700,000 0%
Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive 0%
More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000 32%
Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive 67%
More than 2,200,000 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 106
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 420
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.535
3.
-0.462
4.
-0.454

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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