Started Jun 05, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 16, 2020 06:00AM UTC

Ist191 asks:

How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2020 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that the 2020 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2020 to 30 November 2020, will be busier than average (NOAA). The outcome will be determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).

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The question closed "6 or more" with a closing date of 15 November 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
2 or fewer 0%
3 0%
4 30%
5 41%
6 or more 29%

No. of
Forecasters

301

Forecast
Count

1476

Crowd Brier Score

0.7779


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.757
2.
-0.742
3.
-0.733
4.
-0.733
5.
-0.726

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