In 2016 will the Permanent Court of Arbitration rule that China's "nine-dash line" is contrary to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?
Started
Mar 22, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 12, 2016 02:12PM UTC
Closed Jul 12, 2016 02:12PM UTC
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This question was closed with the answer "yes" on 12 July 2016. The Hague released a summary of their findings, stating that "there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the 'nine-dash line'" (Press Release). For additional coverage of the issue see: BBC, NY Times, CNN.
In 2013, the Philippines started an international legal process aimed at invalidating some of China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, including its "nine-dash line" claim (Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, The National Interest). The Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague determined in 2015 that it has jurisdiction over the issue, and it is expected to issue rulings on the case in June 2016 (The Diplomat, The Hague).
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 99.00% | |
No | 1.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
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Number of Forecasters | 216 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191 | |
Number of Forecasts | 697 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 551 |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |