Started Sep 14, 2015 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 30, 2016 05:00PM UTC

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 9/30 2016. An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see Financial Times 1, Financial Times 2, Foreign Policy, Voice of America. Recommended Questions Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017? Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016? Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

Final Crowd Forecast

10%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

672

Forecast
Count

3224

Crowd Brier Score

0.2793


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.248
2.
-0.247
3.
-0.246
5.
-0.246

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