Started Nov 24, 2015 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 21, 2016 01:00AM UTC

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

Tabletop exercises, war games, and simulations will not suffice to resolve the question. China's defense minister has expressed interest in holding joint naval exercises with members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) amidst heightened tensions in the South China Sea; at least one ASEAN member government has welcomed the proposal (Reuters, CFR, NYTimes). Recommended Questions Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016? Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017? Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 96.00%
No 4.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 340
Average for questions older than 6 months: 238
Number of Forecasts 819
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.152
2.
-0.148
3.
-0.147
4.
-0.144
5.
-0.142

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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