Started Jan 12, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2016 06:59AM UTC

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?

This question resolved on 30 June 2016: Russia continues to plan for expanded influence in the Western Hemisphere, and to project naval power more broadly, but has not conducted any exercises during this timeframe (Center for Security Policy, The Diplomat) Table top exercises, war games, and simulations would not suffice to resolve the question. Russia conducted military exercises with Venezuela in 2008 and again in 2015 (teleSUR, NY Times). Recently, the Russian government has indicated that it might conduct joint military exercises with forces from Cuba and/or Nicaragua (Newsweek, Southern Pulse). For the purposes of this question, Central America includes Mexico and the Caribbean. Recommended Questions Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016? Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 560
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1368
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.012
3.
-0.011
4.
-0.011
5.
-0.011

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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