Started Jun 19, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2021, who will be elected to be the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party?

A race to succeed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer began when she announced unexpectedly in February 2020 that she would step down as CDU party leader (BBC). A leadership vote is expected in December 2020 (Foreign Brief, Euractiv).

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NOTE 25 August 2020:  If Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer were reelected as her own "successor," the question would close "A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021."


The question closed "A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Armin Laschet 0%
Friedrich Merz 0%
Norbert Röttgen 0%
Someone else 0%
A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021 100%

No. of
Forecasters

88

Forecast
Count

541

Crowd Brier Score

0.7143


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.709
2.
-0.7
3.
-0.549
4.
-0.52
5.
-0.446

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