Started Jun 19, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Between 19 June 2020 and 30 September 2020, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China?

A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over a further escalation of tensions between the two neighbors (Economist, BBC, CNN). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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Name Probability
Yes 15%

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