Started Jun 19, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2020 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Between 19 June 2020 and 30 September 2020, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China?

A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over a further escalation of tensions between the two neighbors (Economist, BBC, CNN). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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After extensive review and evaluation of all available reporting, we have concluded that there is insufficient evidence to resolve this question as "Yes". We reviewed events involving Shamsher Ali Khan, Nima Tenzin, and others as potential resolving events and we didn't find any instances which fulfilled all of the elements required for resolution. The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Final Crowd Forecast

1%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

298

Forecast
Count

1401

Crowd Brier Score

0.073


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.12
2.
-0.112
3.
-0.112
4.
-0.101
5.
-0.096

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