The Mack Institute asks:

How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?

Started Jul 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes (MY EV). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET (Alternative Fuels Data Center). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All."

This question is the longer-term companion of question #1677. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "More than 6,500" with a closing date of 31 December 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 5,300 0%
Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive 0%
More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100 0%
Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive 0%
More than 6,500 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 290
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.529
3.
-0.353
4.
-0.168
5.
-0.088

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username