Started Jul 07, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 05, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Will President Trump's approval rating be lower on 5 August 2020 than it was on 1 July 2020, according to FiveThirtyEight?


The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How Popular Is Donald Trump" page (FiveThirtyEight). On 1 July 2020, Trump's approval rating was 40.5%.

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NOTE 20 July 2020: The outcome will be determined using the "Approve" percentage for 5 August 2020 to be retrieved at approximately 9AM ET on 6 August 2020.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2020.

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Correct Answer

No

Final Crowd Forecast

3%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

366

Forecast
Count

1210

Crowd Brier Score

0.8929


Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-1.053
2.
-0.935
3.
-0.904
4.
-0.879
5.
-0.857