Will President Trump's approval rating be lower on 5 August 2020 than it was on 1 July 2020, according to FiveThirtyEight?

Started Jul 07, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 05, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How Popular Is Donald Trump" page (FiveThirtyEight). On 1 July 2020, Trump's approval rating was 40.5%.

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NOTE 20 July 2020: The outcome will be determined using the "Approve" percentage for 5 August 2020 to be retrieved at approximately 9AM ET on 6 August 2020.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.00%
No 98.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 366
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1210
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.935
3.
-0.904
4.
-0.879
5.
-0.857

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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