Started Jul 17, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Will pro-democracy candidates win a Legislative Council majority in Hong Kong's next legislative election?

Legislative elections are upcoming in Hong Kong on the heels of a new security law imposed by Beijing in late June (Hong Kong Free Press, South China Morning Post, The Hill, The Atlantic). Elections are scheduled for 6 September 2020. The outcome will be determined using credible international reporting (e.g., BBC).

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The question closed "No election will be held in 2020" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 0%
No election will be held in 2020 100%

No. of
Forecasters

156

Forecast
Count

324

Crowd Brier Score

0.1141


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.304
2.
-0.262
3.
-0.253
5.
-0.235

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