Will pro-democracy candidates win a Legislative Council majority in Hong Kong's next legislative election?

Started Jul 17, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Legislative elections are upcoming in Hong Kong on the heels of a new security law imposed by Beijing in late June (Hong Kong Free Press, South China Morning Post, The Hill, The Atlantic). Elections are scheduled for 6 September 2020. The outcome will be determined using credible international reporting (e.g., BBC).

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The question closed "No election will be held in 2020" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 0%
No election will be held in 2020 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 324
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.304
2.
-0.262
3.
-0.253
5.
-0.235

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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