Will pro-democracy candidates win a Legislative Council majority in Hong Kong's next legislative election?
Started
Jul 17, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Legislative elections are upcoming in Hong Kong on the heels of a new security law imposed by Beijing in late June (Hong Kong Free Press, South China Morning Post, The Hill, The Atlantic). Elections are scheduled for 6 September 2020. The outcome will be determined using credible international reporting (e.g., BBC).
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The question closed "No election will be held in 2020" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 0% | |
No election will be held in 2020 | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 156 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 324 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |