Who will win the 2020 Bolivian presidential election?

Started Jul 17, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 18, 2020 10:00PM UTC

After the controversial re-election and subsequent resignation of leftist president Evo Morales in late 2019, a special general election had been scheduled for 3 May 2020 but was later postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic (France24, Americas Quarterly, AS/COA). Interim president Jeanine Áñez signed off on the new date, with the first round of voting scheduled for 6 September 2020 and a runoff scheduled for 18 October 2020 if needed  (Página Siete [in Spanish]).

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T he question closed "Luis Arce" with a closing date of 18 October 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Jeanine Áñez 0%
Luis Arce 56%
Carlos Mesa 44%
Someone else 0%
No election will be held in 2020 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 434
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.338
2.
-0.298
4.
-0.265
5.
-0.256

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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