Started Apr 01, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 08, 2016 08:00PM UTC

&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?

This question was closed with the answer "No" with an end date of 8 November 2016 (

For information on the differences between the popular vote and the electoral vote see []. Donald Trump has threatened to run as an independent candidate if he loses the Republican nomination (Politico, NPR) and factions of the Republican party are rumored to be considering third-party options (NY Times, Politico). Recommended Questions Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July? Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 30%
No 70%
Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 866
Average for questions older than 6 months: 249
Number of Forecasts 3490
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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