Started Jul 24, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 26, 2020 08:01AM UTC

Between 25 July 2020 and 25 November 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in five or more fatalities for Egyptian armed forces?

On 20 July 2020, Egypt's parliament unanimously approved a troop deployment to a "western front," which some have interpreted to refer to Libya (Al Jazeera, Anadolu Agency). A lethal confrontation in Libyan airspace or territorial waters would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 26 November 2020.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

161

Forecast
Count

496

Crowd Brier Score

0.1175


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.13
2.
-0.13
3.
-0.127
4.
-0.126

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