Started Jul 31, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 10, 2021 06:30PM UTC

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?

In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (Reuters). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen (The Atlantic, Brookings Institute).

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NOTE 10 December 2021: Since an expansion of the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used has taken the form of legislation, the question would only close once that legislation, passed by the Senate, becomes law.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 10 December 2021.

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Tags
Challenges
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.00%
No 98.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 208
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 1181
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.244
2.
-1.244
3.
-1.243
4.
-1.24
5.
-1.237

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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