Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?

Started Jul 31, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 10, 2021 06:30PM UTC
Challenges
Tags

In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (Reuters). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen (The Atlantic, Brookings Institute).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 10 December 2021: Since an expansion of the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used has taken the form of legislation, the question would only close once that legislation, passed by the Senate, becomes law.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 10 December 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.00%
No 98.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 208
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193
Number of Forecasts 1181
Average for questions older than 6 months: 554
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.243848
2.
-1.243648
3.
-1.242586
4.
-1.240395
5.
-1.23661

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username