Who will win the election for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District in 2020?

Started Aug 04, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 03, 2020 07:00PM UTC

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Democratic Party candidate 65%
The Republican Party candidate 35%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 290
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.843
2.
-0.64
3.
-0.523
4.
-0.518
5.
-0.434

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username