Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Adam Grant asks:

When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?

As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States (CNBC, TechCrunch, Starlink). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.

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Name Probability
Before 1 January 2021 0%
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021 0%
Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021 16%
Not before 1 July 2021 84%

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