Started Sep 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 December 2020, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?

Mohammed bin Salman has continued to consolidate power in the Kingdom since becoming Crown Prince in 2017, but continues to face scrutiny over the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi (Deutsche Welle, Al Jazeera, Eurasian Times). In the past the Crown Prince has temporarily taken on the title of Vice Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques when the King has been unavailable; this would not count as ceasing to be Crown Prince.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, by becoming the King of Saudi Arabia 0%
Yes, without becoming the King of Saudi Arabia 0%
No 100%

No. of
Forecasters

233

Forecast
Count

594

Crowd Brier Score

0.0048


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004
2.
-0.004
3.
-0.004
4.
-0.004
5.
-0.004

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