Started Sep 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 December 2020, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?

Mohammed bin Salman has continued to consolidate power in the Kingdom since becoming Crown Prince in 2017, but continues to face scrutiny over the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi (Deutsche Welle, Al Jazeera, Eurasian Times). In the past the Crown Prince has temporarily taken on the title of Vice Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques when the King has been unavailable; this would not count as ceasing to be Crown Prince.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

Name Probability
Yes, by becoming the King of Saudi Arabia 8%
Yes, without becoming the King of Saudi Arabia 0%
No 92%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In