Started Oct 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?

The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons (Federation of American Scientists, ScienceMag.org, NY Times). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 (Defense News). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point (Defense News).

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NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests.


The question closed "0" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 100%
1 0%
2 0%
3 0%
4 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 97
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 475
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.171
2.
-0.677
3.
-0.64
4.
-0.581
5.
-0.574

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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