Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?

Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines (NY Times, Sinopharm, Sinovac, Guardian, BBC). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: AP, EMA, EMA - Approvals. For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: FDA - Vaccine Development, FDA - Emergency Preparedness. Emergency use approvals would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, only by the FDA 0%
Yes, only by the EMA 0%
Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA 0%
No 100%

No. of
Forecasters

279

Forecast
Count

823

Crowd Brier Score

0.0056


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.032
3.
-0.031
4.
-0.031

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