Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO).

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The question closed "More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000" with a closing date of 1 February 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 3,000,000 0%
Between 3,000,000 and 3,500,000, inclusive 0%
More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000 100%
Between 4,000,000 and 4,500,000, inclusive 0%
More than 4,500,000 0%

No. of
Forecasters

126

Forecast
Count

638

Crowd Brier Score

0.1302


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.104
3.
-0.082
4.
-0.081
5.
-0.079

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