Good Judgment® Open | How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?

Question 21 of 103 in In the News 2021 — See all questions

Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC • Closing Feb 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?

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Health

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Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge In the News 2021 Coronavirus Outbreak

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The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO).

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Name	Probability
Fewer than 3,000,000	0%
Between 3,000,000 and 3,500,000, inclusive	0%
More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000	70%
Between 4,000,000 and 4,500,000, inclusive	30%
More than 4,500,000	0%

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