Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?
Started
Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO).
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The question closed "More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000" with a closing date of 1 February 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 3,000,000 | 0% | |
| Between 3,000,000 and 3,500,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000 | 100% | |
| Between 4,000,000 and 4,500,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 4,500,000 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 126 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 638 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
