Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?
Closed Feb 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Concern regarding the COVID-19 situation in the Americas has increased (Wall Street Journal, CNN). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO).
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NOTE 25 January 2021: We will use the data as reported at approximately 5:00PM ET on Monday 1 February.
The question closed "More than 44,000,000 but less than 46,000,000" with a closing date of 1 February 2021.
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Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Cuantos casos confirmados de COVID-19 habrán sido reportados por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) para la región de las Américas al 1 de febrero de 2021?
Información adicional: Existe creciente preocupación al respecto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en la región de las Américas (Wall Street Journal, CNN). El resultado de esta pregunta será determinado utilizando datos reportados por la OMS (OMS, en inglés). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 42,000,000 | 0% | |
Between 42,000,000 and 44,000,000, inclusive | 0% | |
More than 44,000,000 but fewer than 46,000,000 | 100% | |
Between 46,000,000 and 48,000,000, inclusive | 0% | |
More than 48,000,000 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 122 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 622 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |