Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?

Started Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 11, 2022 08:01AM UTC

President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 (ABC News, Council on Foreign Relations, AP). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 (Nicaragua Constitution [in Spanish], Nicaragua Constitution [in English]).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 83
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Number of Forecasts 286
Average for questions older than 6 months: 637
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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