Started Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 11, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?

President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 (ABC News, Council on Foreign Relations, AP). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 (Nicaragua Constitution [in Spanish], Nicaragua Constitution [in English]).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 83
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 286
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001
2.
-0.001
3.
-0.001
4.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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