Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 13, 2021 11:00AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?

After the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, how the next Italian government will be formed -- and how Italy will continue to weather the COVID-19 crisis -- remains to be seen (Economist, BBC, thelocal.it). Neither a reappointment of Conte nor the appointment of a caretaker prime minister would count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 13 February 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

100%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

89

Forecast
Count

167

Crowd Brier Score

0.4148


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.435
2.
-0.304
3.
-0.245
4.
-0.244
5.
-0.235

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