How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week starting 21 February 2021?
Closed Feb 27, 2021 08:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week starting 21 February 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
The question closed "Fewer than 45,000" with a closing date of 28 February 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 45,000 | 85% | |
| Between 45,000 and 60,000, inclusive | 15% | |
| More than 60,000 but fewer than 75,000 | 0% | |
| Between 75,000 and 90,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 90,000 but fewer than 105,000 | 0% | |
| Between 105,000 and 120,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 120,000 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 79 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 242 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
