How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?

Started Mar 03, 2021 07:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 27, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 27 March 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.

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NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click "Export" for file download options).


The question closed "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 28 March 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 15,000 0%
Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive 4%
More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000 91%
Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive 5%
More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000 0%
Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive 0%
More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000 0%
Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive 0%
More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000 0%
95,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 50
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.117
3.
-0.105
4.
-0.091
5.
-0.088

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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