Started Mar 03, 2021 07:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 31, 2021 07:01AM UTC

How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?

The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” (CDC). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.

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NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. 

The question closed "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 March 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 70,000,000 0%
Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive 0%
More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000 0%
Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive 0%
More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000 0%
Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive 0%
More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000 11%
Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive 89%
More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000 0%
Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive 0%
More than 115,000,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 759
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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