How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” (CDC). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.
The question closed "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 March 2021.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Fewer than 70,000,000||0%|
|Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive||0%|
|More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000||0%|
|Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive||0%|
|More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000||0%|
|Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive||0%|
|More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000||11%|
|Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive||89%|
|More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000||0%|
|Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive||0%|
|More than 115,000,000||0%|
|Number of Forecasters||183|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 258|
|Number of Forecasts||759|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 686|
|Accuracy of participants|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||about average|