Started Mar 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?

On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following (ABC News, Dallas Morning News, Texas.gov). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 (TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard [click “Trends”], TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data [Excel file], TX DSHS - Probable Cases). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Fewer than 150,000" with a closing date of 1 May 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 150,000 100%
Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive 0%
More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000 0%
Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive 0%
More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000 0%
550,000 or more 0%

No. of
Forecasters

117

Forecast
Count

409

Crowd Brier Score

0.0166


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.025
2.
-0.025
3.
-0.024
4.
-0.024
5.
-0.024

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username