Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 10, 2021 04:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo?

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is facing calls to resign amid a series of sexual harassment allegations and questions about his handling of COVID-19 policy with nursing homes (ABC News, CBS News, City & State New York). If Cuomo announces both that he will not seek reelection as governor and has resigned or will resign in the same statement, the question would close "Cuomo will announce that he will resign as governor."

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The question closed "Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor" with a closing date of 10 August 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022 21%
Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor 57%
Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial 2%
None of these will occur before 1 April 2022 20%

No. of
Forecasters

115

Forecast
Count

412

Crowd Brier Score

1.5209


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.39
2.
-0.953
3.
-0.788
4.
-0.784
5.
-0.77

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