Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo?

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is facing calls to resign amid a series of sexual harassment allegations and questions about his handling of COVID-19 policy with nursing homes (ABC News, CBS News, City & State New York). If Cuomo announces both that he will not seek reelection as governor and has resigned or will resign in the same statement, the question would close "Cuomo will announce that he will resign as governor."

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Name Probability
Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022 38%
Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor 4%
Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial 5%
None of these will occur before 1 April 2022 53%

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