How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey's snap elections?

Started Sep 01, 2015 04:37PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2015 10:00PM UTC

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) failed to win a single-party majority in June's general election for the first time since 2002. After negotiations aimed at forming a coalition government collapsed, snap elections have been scheduled for 1 November. For more information see: www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-to-head-to-snap-polls-in-november-1440522516 .
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
A majority 22%
A plurality 78%
Not a plurality 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 194
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 567
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.48749
2.
-0.464436
3.
-0.432705
4.
-0.423705
5.
-0.369919

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username