Adam Grant asks:
What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 13 August 2021, according to FiveThirtyEight?
Closed Aug 13, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 3 May 2021, Biden's approval rating was 53.5%. The data will be accessed for resolution on 16 August 2021.
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The question closed "Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 13 August 2021. As specified in the question description, the data were accessed for resolution on 16 August 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 45.0% | 0% | |
| Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive | 26% | |
| Higher than 50.0% but lower than 55.0% | 74% | |
| 55.0% or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 222 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 960 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
