Started May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 13, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Adam Grant asks:

What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 13 August 2021, according to FiveThirtyEight?

The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 3 May 2021, Biden's approval rating was 53.5%. The data will be accessed for resolution on 16 August 2021.

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The question closed "Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 13 August 2021. As specified in the question description, the data were accessed for resolution on 16 August 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 45.0% 0%
Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive 26%
Higher than 50.0% but lower than 55.0% 74%
55.0% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 222
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 960
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.475
2.
-0.453
3.
-0.435
4.
-0.426
5.
-0.393

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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