Started May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Adam Grant asks:

Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court?

Speculation abounds as to whether Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer will retire after the current term (CNN, The Hill). The date that his retirement would take effect is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 172
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 416
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username