Started Jun 02, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC

How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 June 2021, according to the CDC?

The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” (CDC). The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 175,000,000 and 185,000,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 30 June 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 175,000,000 0%
Between 175,000,000 and 185,000,000, inclusive 100%
More than 185,000,000 but fewer than 195,000,000 0%
Between 195,000,000 and 205,000,000, inclusive 0%
More than 205,000,000 but fewer than 215,000,000 0%
Between 215,000,000 and 225,000,000, inclusive 0%
More than 225,000,000 but fewer than 235,000,000 0%
235,000,000 or more 0%

No. of
Forecasters

51

Forecast
Count

137

Crowd Brier Score

0.0004


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004
2.
-0.004
3.
-0.004
4.
-0.004

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username