Started Jun 04, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

When will the UK have vaccinated 80% or more of its 18 and over population with a full course of a COVID-19 vaccine?

The outcome will be determined using data from the UK government (Coronavirus.data.gov.uk). See "Vaccination uptake, by report date," and select "UK Total." If the UK government changes how it reports vaccination data (e.g., including the administration of single-dose vaccines), we will provide clarifying language as necessary (BBC). As of 2 June 2021, full course uptake in the UK was 50.7%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Name Probability
Before 1 July 2021 0%
Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021 0%
Between 1 August and 31 August 2021 54%
Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021 43%
Not before 1 October 2021 3%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username