Started Jun 04, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

When will the UK have vaccinated 80% or more of its 18 and over population with a full course of a COVID-19 vaccine?

The outcome will be determined using data from the UK government ( See "Vaccination uptake, by report date," and select "UK Total." If the UK government changes how it reports vaccination data (e.g., including the administration of single-dose vaccines), we will provide clarifying language as necessary (BBC). As of 2 June 2021, full course uptake in the UK was 50.7%.

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Name Probability
Before 1 July 2021 0%
Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021 0%
Between 1 August and 31 August 2021 54%
Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021 43%
Not before 1 October 2021 3%

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