The Mack Institute asks
Will more than 6,000 new battery electric vehicles be registered in Germany in the third quarter of 2016?
Started
May 17, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
This question was closed on "No," with an end date of 30 September 2016. Kraftfahrt-Bundqesamt, the source for the best-selling-cars report mentioned below, reported 3,321 new battery electric vehicles were registered in the third quarter (Kraftfahrt-Bundqesamt).
Germany is launching a 1 billion euro rebate scheme to incentivize the sale of electric vehicles (Reuters). Question will be resolved using the totals from the "Electric" columns for the three months in Q3, July, August, and September at best-selling-cars.com. Registrations of hybrid electric vehicles and plug-in-vehicles will not count. Third quarter registrations in 2015 were 2,722, and include both German (e.g. BMW i3; VW e-Golf) and non-German (e.g. Nissan Leaf; Tesla Model X) models. Question will be suspended on 30 September 2016 and resolved when September's data is released. The new subsidy program, which gives purchasers a discount of 3000-4000 euros for select vehicles, is scheduled to start as early as May 2016. The German government is perceived as wanting to support the German auto companies, which are very important to the German economy, and to draw attention away from the diesel engine scandal of Volkswagen by emphasizing the country’s commitment to “green” technologies. The tax is controversial with some economists, who oppose subsidizing private purchases, and with environmentalists, who see negative impact from a boost in electricity consumption at a time when Germany’s ban on nuclear power plants has made its electricity generation more coal-based. For more information see: The Guardian, Bloomberg, Forbes, The Wall Street Journal.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.00% | |
| No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 278 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 630 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |