Started Jun 17, 2021 08:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jun 30, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).

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Name Probability
Less than 3,800 2%
Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive 9%
More than 4,100 but less than 4,400 25%
Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive 43%
More than 4,700 but less than 5,000 18%
5,000 or more 3%

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