Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?
Started
Jun 17, 2021 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Tags
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Less than 3,800" with a closing date of 30 June 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3,800 | 45% | |
| Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive | 55% | |
| More than 4,100 but less than 4,400 | 0% | |
| Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 4,700 but less than 5,000 | 0% | |
| 5,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 117 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1354 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 637 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
