Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?

Started Jun 17, 2021 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).

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The question closed "Less than 3,800" with a closing date of 30 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3,800 45%
Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive 55%
More than 4,100 but less than 4,400 0%
Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive 0%
More than 4,700 but less than 5,000 0%
5,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 117
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Number of Forecasts 1354
Average for questions older than 6 months: 637
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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