Tim Harford asks:
When will the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) first represent more than 67.0% of COVID cases in the US?
Delta variant (B.1.617.2, formerly known as the India variant) case growth in the United States raises concerns about a possible worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic in the fall (CBS News, CNN). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in 2-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 May 2021, the Delta variant's percent share of COVID lineage in the US was 2.7% as of the launch of this question. Data from the “Nowcast” option would count.
The question closed "The two weeks ending either 17 July 2021 or 31 July 2021" with a closing date of 18 July 2021.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|The two weeks ending 3 July 2021 or earlier||0%|
|The two weeks ending either 17 July 2021 or 31 July 2021||99%|
|The two weeks ending either 14 August 2021 or 28 August 2021||1%|
|The two weeks ending 11 September 2021 or 25 September 2021||0%|
|Not before 26 September 2021||0%|