Started Jun 18, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Aug 12, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?

Increasing cases of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) are presenting challenges for the UK (Guardian, Public Health England, British Medical Journal). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from Public Health England, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. There were 42,323 total confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant in the UK up to 9 June 2021 (Variants: distribution of case data - 11 June 2021). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 11 August 2021, which is expected on 13 August 2021.

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Name Probability
On or before 14 July 2021 0%
Between 15 July and 28 July 2021 0%
Between 29 July and 11 August 2021 99%
Not before 12 August 2021 1%

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